Tuesday, September 15, 2015

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 predictions

 Raheem Sterling
The Group Stage of the UEFA Champions League begins Tuesday across TSN’s five feeds.  That means more Champions League action, bigger and better than ever before, for the Canadian audience.
Each Matchday I’ll look ahead to the week’s feature matchups, filling you in on what you need to know.  I’ll also make match predictions.  Play along and keep score at home.
Here’s a look at four significant Matchday 1 games to look forward to:
Tuesday
Manchester City v. Juventus (Etihad Stadium, 2:45pm ET on TSN1)
A marquee matchup featuring two teams with contrasting starts to the new season.  Manchester City is the most impressive team in England with a perfect record and having yet to concede a goal on the domestic season.  A 4-2-3-1 formation has brought the best out of the group, finding defensive balance and a structure to compliment a number of crafty attacking players in the team. Big-money summer signings Raheem Sterling and Kevin de Bruyne seem natural fits in the team, with centre-half Nicolas Otamendi kept out of the side by the solid play of Eliaquim Mangala. Sergio Aguero (knee) will miss Tuesday’s game, with Sterling (hamstring) and David Silva (ankle) both likely to return after missing the 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on the weekend.  Wilfried Bony is expected to lead the line for City.
While City is off to a flier, Juventus has failed to launch, having yet tasted victory on the Serie A season (one draw, two losses).  It was a summer of change with key players Carlos Tevez, Arturo Vidal and Andrea Pirlo leaving from last season’s Champions League finalist.  With the reliable Claudio Marchisio (abductor) out for a month, even more pressure is heaped on the shoulders of Paul Pogba. The 22-year-old French midfielder started on the bench in last weekend’s 1-1 home draw with Chievo.  He’s the best link between the tiers, and is all important as a creativity influence from the midfield.  Colombian Juan Cuadrado has yet to settle and Mario Mandzukic remains a threat.  Paulo Dybala (two goals) is the only player to score on the season.  That’s not good enough.  Fortunes are bound to change, but with squad turnover and the acclimation of new players in the team, it’s all a process.
These are the kind of games City has to win to make the jump to true Champions League contender.  Perennial disappointment in Europe has become custom place.  City was eliminated in the Round of 16 last season against Barcelona, and have never advanced beyond that stage in the competition. Much more is expected this time around.  It’s an experienced Juventus team they are facing; a group accustomed to winning in Europe.  Three central defenders and two wing-backs will be difficult for City to break down, especially without Aguero. The composed, defensive demeanour of the visitors will be a true clash of styles.  City may be the favourite based upon form.  But this is the Champions League.  Rule out Juventus at your own peril.
Prediction: Draw (1-1)
PSV Eindhoven v. Manchester United (Philips Stadion, 2:45pm ET on TSN4)
Manchester United are back in the Champions League after a year hiatus and are favourites to advance from Group B, featuring PSV, CSKA Moscow and Wolfsburg. Louis van Gaal’s side has travelled to Eindhoven without striker Wayne Rooney (hamstring), who also missed Saturday’s 3-1 victory over Liverpool.  Picking up his slack in the attack is a new-look four, including Memphis Depay, who spent 10 years at PSV before making the move to Old Trafford this summer. Memphis will be the player to watch Tuesday. New signing Anthony Martial will also be in contention for a starting role, impressing with a debut goal after coming on as a substitute on the weekend.  With Rooney out, the inexperienced pair of Andreas Pereira and James Wilson has joined United in Holland.  Goalkeeper David de Gea made his first start on the season and brings even more assurance to an already stingy defensive structure.  Van Gaal plays a 4-2-3-1, with impressive full-backs Matteo Darmian and Luke Shaw constantly getting forward to join the attack.
PSV are back in the Champions League for the first time in six years.  There will be no surprise when it comes to Van Gaal and his methods for the Eredivisie Champions.  Van Gaal coached PSV manager Phillip Cocu for club and country (Barcelona/The Netherlands).  PSV are coming off a 6-0 win over Cambuur on the weekend and are undefeated thus far in the domestic campaign. PSV are led by Mexican International midfielder Andres Guardado, Dutch star Luciano Narsingh and top goal scorer on the season Luuk de Jong (five).  In typical Dutch fashion, PSV will likely play a 4-3-3, content with ball possession.  It’s a young team with all kinds of pace that can trouble United if they can stretch an otherwise compact unit.
The home side says they want to force Chris Smalling to play out of the back, taking options away elsewhere.  It’s a task easier said than done.  Although Smalling may be the player with the least acumen on the ball, United is a team full of players comfortable in possession.  If PSV sits back and allows United to utilize space, they will be punished.  PSV is uncomfortable pressing high.  If they are cheap in possession, it will be a long day in Eindhoven for Cocu’s men.
Prediction: Manchester United wins (2-0)
Wednesday
Valencia v. Zenit (Mestalla Stadium, 2:45pm ET on TSN5)
Group H is the weakest in the competition, making Wednesday’s opening match that much more important for both sides.  Gent and Lyon join the fourth-place team from Spain and the Russian Champions in the group. Valencia is back in the Champions League for the first time since they reached the last 16 in 2013.  They qualified for this year’s competition after a hard-fought 4-3 aggregate win over Monaco in the qualifier play-in. Valencia is blessed with a wide array of attacking talent. Alvaro Negredo, Paco Alcacer and Pablo Piatti lead the line, with the impressive Daniel Parejo playing creator as the number 10. German defender Shkodran Mustafi is all-important in defence with the summer departure of Nicolas Otamendi. Valencia is experiencing a bit of a goalkeeping crisis with Maty Ryan and Diego Alves both out through injury. Jaume Domenech made his debut on the weekend and earned a clean sheet in a 1-0 victory at Sporting Dijon.
The managers are familiar foes, with both Valencia’s Nuno Espirito Santo and Zenit’s Andre Villas-Boas being part of Jose Mourinho’s coaching staff while at Porto. Villas-Boas has already announced he plans on leaving Zenit upon season’s end.  It was a tumultuous summer at the club, forced to sell striker Jose Rondon to West Bromwich Albion.  Holding midfielder Axel Witsel was kept despite strong links to Tottenham.  Zenit is coming off a 2-2 draw with rival CSKA Moscow over the weekend and currently sit fifth in the Russian Premier League. There is talent in the team, but consistency remains an issue.  Ezequiel Garay leads the backline, with the enigmatic Hulk the star in attack.
Zenit, like many Russian clubs, don’t travel well in Europe.  They are winless in their last seven trips to Spain.  The lost two games in the group stage last season before bowing out of the competition and landing in the Europa League.  It’s difficult seeing an undisciplined team remaining disciplined in defence in a very difficult place to play.  Look for Zenit to pick up their points at home.  Anything away is a bonus.
Prediction: Valencia wins (3-1)
AS Roma v. Barcelona (Stadio Olimpico, 2:45pm ET)
Barcelona, begin their title defence at the Stadio Olimpico in a tricky opening match in Group E.  Barcelona was the class of Europe last season and there is very little reason to believe they won’t be among the few left standing during the latter stages of this year’s competition.  The three-pronged attack of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar combined for 27 goals to help Barcelona win a fifth European Cup/Champions League.
Barcelona manager Luis Enrique returns to Rome to face the club he managed for the 2011-12 season.  Barcelona continued their perfect start to the new season with a 2-1 come-from-behind victory at Atletico Madrid last weekend. Messi came off the bench, after celebrating the birth of his second son Friday, to score yet another highlight-reel goal to cap off the victory. The question for all competitors is how to limit the damage imposed by Messi, Suarez and Neymar.  Sanctions haven’t allowed the team to add externally, with Arda Turan set to join the team in January. Depth may become an issue, depending on how the young players grow into the team.  Defensive concerns have also been raised.  The issue for opponents is if they press too high, Andres Iniesta and Ivan Rakitic are far too crafty in the midfield, ready to pick apart any midfield alignment that overcommits.
Roma looks to make amends after being embarrassed in last year’s competition.  A 7-1 thrashing at the hands of Bayern Munich killed any momentum gained by a positive start to the season. Roma have quality in the side, and have likewise got off to a positive start this season.  A 2-1 win over Juventus bodes well. As do the summer additions of goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny, defender Lucas Digne, midfielder Mohamed Salah, and strikers Edin Dzeko and Iago Falque. It’s an impressive haul and commitment by the club, understanding further progress is necessary to truly challenge in a wide open Serie A after yet another second-place finish.  As always, European competition takes priority for Italian club teams. Manager Rudi Garcia was able to start Radja Nainggolan and Salah on the bench in a 2-0 away win at Frosinone on the weekend; a soft opponent ideal heading into a crucial midweek tie. Nainggolan takes on a much more important role with Miralem Pjanic (calf) out through injury.
The combatants met in an August friendly with Barcelona over-running Roma.  It was a 3-0 final, and it wasn’t even close.  It was just a friendly, and much has changed, particularly with new players joining Roma since. In a battle of well-organized 4-3-3 formations, it’s difficult to see the better passing, the better connecting and team with better players up front being troubled too much by the other.
Prediction: Barcelona wins (2-0)

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