Yahoo Politics
September 16, 2015
The
Republican primary field looks very different today than it did nearly
six weeks ago, when the first debate was held in Cleveland. Donald Trump
has added to his lead, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are starting to
show momentum — and some of the others are in danger of joining Rick
Perry in falling off the map. A lot is riding on how the top 11
candidates, and the four in the undercard forum, handle the questions
from CNN’s moderators at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi
Valley, Calif. Here is a rundown on where the race stands and what each
of the candidates needs to do to stay competitive.
Donald Trump
Up 5.5 points from the Aug. 6 debate in Cleveland.
Trump is coming off back-to-back days of massive rallies, in Dallas and in Los Angeles. He spoke to roughly 15,000 people Monday
inside the American Airlines Center, home of the Dallas Mavericks and
the Dallas Stars, and on Tuesday he held a rally aboard the
887-foot-long USS Iowa, a decommissioned battleship in the port of Los
Angeles. He continues a steady rise in the polls, although his velocity
has decreased somewhat. The question is, does this debate mark the
beginning of a downward trend for Trump, or can he actually keep gaining
in popularity? He’s led the pack now for almost two months, going from
the mid-single digits in early July to the clear frontrunner, at 22
percent, in the space of a few weeks. He’s now at 30 percent, but his negatives are very high
with a significant number of voters. Political observers have gone
through different stages in their reactions to Trump. First came
amusement, then mockery, and we have now been in the mild to moderate
alarm phase for a few weeks. What happens with Trump on Wednesday night
and in the following days will determine whether the GOP establishment
goes into action and does what it can to derail and take down the
demagogic anti-politician. They are hoping that the spell he has cast so
far has been the equivalent of a late-night summer party, where alcohol
and lack of sleep encourage loose talk and wild speculation. What
nobody knows yet is what it will take to snap everything back to what
they hope is still reality.
Ben Carson
Up 12 points from first debate.
Carson is arguably the story of the last month, even if he has been overshadowed in the press by Trump’s “perpetual attention machine.”
Carson has come from the middle of the pack to now a clear second
place, at around 18 percent. And that’s despite a performance at the
first debate that most political experts thought was forgettable and
unimpressive. But clearly Carson’s lack of experience and absence of
establishment connections has benefited him. Now, however, the
soft-spoken retired surgeon is becoming a target. He and Trump have
sparred recently. And he’ll be under a much bigger microscope than he’s
ever experienced. “Dr. Carson realizes that more attention will be
placed on him during this debate. He will also probably be given more
time. But his goal is the same — to make his case and share his
solutions with America,” said his spokeswoman, Deana Bass.
Jeb Bush
Down 4.7 points from first debate.
Bush
has to improve his debate performance. The good news for him is that it
won’t be incredibly difficult to do better than he did in Cleveland.
The bad news is that he is cratering in the polls. Donors are restless.
Bush is flying commercial now
to some events rather than on a private jet, a telltale sign of a
campaign that is tightening its purse strings. Still, Bush retains
significant advantages in his ability to raise money and field a
national organization capable of driving supporters to the polls in a
drawn-out primary. And he is a highly intelligent candidate with a
solidly conservative record as governor of Florida. The challenge for
him is getting that across, and convincing the pundits and the voters
that he has the leadership qualities to take command of the race. If he
can deliver any kind of body blow to Trump, that would be a huge win for
Bush. But at the very least, he needs to show more forcefulness and
clarity.
Ted Cruz
Up 1.2 points from first debate.
The
freshman U.S. senator from Texas continues to watch the rise of the
nonpoliticians — Trump and Carson and Fiorina — and waits with open arms
for the moment when the bottom falls out of their candidacies. Cruz
advisers have watched Trump show up to events with little to no
organizational effort to identify and collect contact information from
supporters. They don’t think he has any capacity to translate his
current popularity into votes, even if he doesn’t implode. “I think we
are in a breakout moment,” a Cruz adviser said recently. But Cruz does
need Trump to lose some altitude for that to happen. Cruz is focusing
his energies on denouncing President Obama’s Iran deal, on defunding
Planned Parenthood, and on talking about religious liberty. He is third in Iowa and positioned quite well for the fall. He needs to avoid any big errors or damaging moments.
Marco Rubio
Up a half point from first debate.
Political
observers have expressed surprise that Rubio did not reap any real
benefit from the first debate, where most agreed that he was among the
most impressive. But the U.S. senator from Florida continues to play the
role of the tortoise. He does not have a large, expensive campaign and
so he does not have to worry about sustaining a massive fundraising
effort. He is making smart organizational moves to position himself well in Nevada,
which goes fourth in the primary process. HIs campaign said not to
expect any surprises. He’ll be looking to hit singles and doubles,
counterpunch if and when he’s attacked, and stay within himself. There’s
not a lot of incentive for others to go after him at the moment,
however, so it is likely to be clear sailing for him.
Carly Fiorina
Up around 4 points from first debate.
The
former Hewlett-Packard CEO was the breakout performer from Cleveland.
She wasn’t even in the primetime debate, but her eloquence and charisma
onstage, as well as in an interview afterward with MSNBC’s Chris
Matthews, vaulted her into the national conversation and bumped her
polling average up to as high as 6 percent in mid-August. She has lost a
little momentum since then, but was also given a gift by Trump when he
insulted her looks in an interview with a Rolling Stone reporter.
Fiorina spokeswoman Sarah Isgur Flores said the Reagan Library debate is
“another opportunity for us to introduce Carly to a lot of voters. She
still has among the lowest name ID in the field.”
Scott Walker
Down 5.7 points from first debate.
Walker
has fallen the furthest of any candidate since the debate in Cleveland.
For a sampling of all that has been written about his woes, just Google
“Scott Walker struggles.” Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.), a supposed ally of
Walker’s, said in a recent Molly Ball look
at Walker’s downward trend, “At some point he will figure out what he
actually believes.” Walker has been going the wrong direction for
months. He has developed a reputation as a flip-flopper. His campaign
knows he needs to have a strong performance at the Reagan Library. “He
didn’t use all of his time” in response to every question during the
first debate, said an adviser. “He recognizes he can work on that” and
that he needs to show “a bit more energy and contrast.” The nod to
“contrast” is a signal that Walker will be more aggressive in critiquing
others in the field. But Walker also remains in fourth place in Iowa.
His favorables are high there. He may need to stop the bleeding, but he
doesn’t need to panic yet. “We’re playing the long game,” the adviser
said.
Mike Huckabee
Down 2.5 points from first debate.
The
former Arkansas governor may have hoped that his rally outside the
Carter County Detention Center in northeast Kentucky, on behalf of the
county clerk who was jailed
for refusing to issue marriage licenses to gay couples, would have
given him a bigger bump than he has experienced. And that may still
come. But you can bet that Huckabee will bring up his role in the Kim
Davis saga. It might be interesting to see what he says if Cruz
“mentions” that Huckabee’s staffers prevented Cruz from going onstage
and speaking. Clearly, Huckabee wanted the spotlight for himself. But
it might be too rich for Cruz, who himself loves the stage, to complain
about it.
John Kasich
Up around 2 points from first debate.
Like
Fiorina, Kasich’s polling average was so low around the time of the
first debate that it’s not visible on the Real Clear Politics graph. And
also like Fiorina, the Ohio governor was one of the most talked-about
surprise candidates in Cleveland. The home crowd gave Kasich a huge
ovation, he made some waves with his welcoming rhetoric toward gays and lesbians, and he has since seized third place in New Hampshire polling,
where he is now discussed as a major obstacle there for Bush — who is
seen as needing to do well in the state since he has little chance to
win Iowa. Kasich needs a solid performance here, but nothing
spectacular. He just needs to keep his modest momentum going and keep
plugging away in New Hampshire.
Rand Paul
Down 1.9 points from first debate.
If
Scott Walker has plummeted in the last month, the U.S. senator from
Kentucky has gone from floundering to afterthought. He doesn’t appear to
really want to put up a fight for the nomination. He doesn’t like
raising money. His campaign schedule has been erratic. He has telegraphed his strategy
will be to attack Trump over the issue of eminent domain. Going after
Trump didn’t work for Paul in the first debate. Perhaps he’ll score some
points on Wednesday. But more important for him is that he run a more
consistent, steady campaign.
Chris Christie
Down 1.3 points from first debate.
The
New Jersey governor had a solid first debate but has gained no
traction. He is one of several victims of Trump’s all-consuming
domination of the news cycle. But he also remains saddled with high
negatives among voters, tied to the Bridgegate scandal. He will likely
need others to stumble in order to have room to make a move for the
front of the pack. The longer he goes without moving up in the polls,
the less likely that long-shot scenario becomes. However, Christie
remains a wild card due to the force of his personality and his
political talents. If there’s anyone with the raw ability to deliver a
roundhouse uppercut to Trump and have a breakout moment, it’s Christie.
Rick Santorum
No real movement.
The
former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania has his win in the Iowa caucuses
from 2012 to fall back on. That year, he was nowhere in the polls until
the last month. He hopes to outwork and outlast his competitors again.
He’s the only candidate to have already visited all 99 counties in Iowa
this cycle. But unlike in 2012, he is up against a large group of
formidable candidates. He, along with Jindal, Graham, and Pataki, is in
the non-primetime undercard debate.
Bobby Jindal
No real movement.
The Louisiana governor hasn’t made any progress. He did, however, launch the most provocative attacks on Trump this month, mocking and ridiculing him even
while acknowledging that some of Trump’s critiques of political
correctness and crony capitalism are accurate. Trump has responded to
Jindal, which is what Jindal wants. But unless and until Jindal can get
himself onto the same stage as Trump, his ability to bait the
frontrunner is limited.
Lindsey Graham
No real movement.
The
veteran U.S. senator from South Carolina was surprisingly feeble in his
debate performance in Cleveland. His prospects in the race are as they
ever were: dismal. And that’s despite the fact that he is a favorite son
in his home state, which goes third in the primary. But if he wants to
stay in, he needs to improve his performance.
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